11/26/13

The Athens Massacre (Ftase explained part III, the butcher strikes back)


In my last post I was complaining about having no goats while a nice bull flag was playing out,
(If you recall many names gave a good 7% in two days). I was expecting for many days now a correction that would be driven from the fact that the MSCI inflows have run out and the bad soap opera re-run of getting a green light from the Troika would no play out again.

It appears that many bought the empty words of Greek and German politicians and Friday and Monday (gap  up) made it look that the previous high would be taken out easily and continue higher. To that point when the Gap was covered I bet everyone was tempted to the usual sport of the last months and that is to BTFD.

So pretty much until  the open of the US market nothing gave out what was going to happen next.
But given inflows due to MSCI re-waiting it appears that many held in the market until the last day Greece was ranked among developed Markets  What made it a Massacre is that almost the volume of 10 days or a whole billion was  traded during the last 15 minutes where algos calculate the price of trading.

So the last 10 minutes I had a feeling that my market data were wrong and I did not  trust the volume,
 Ftase index finally closed like this :

which is an ugly rejection and a black knight in huge volume.

What is worse is that the names that were pretty much leading the market higher were hit hard

ELPE GA 

MOH GA 



MIG GA 

and many more names that after all make happy that kept the discipline to unload all my position at the beginning of the month.

I think that I have to say that today i initiated once again a small position in Alpha ga


and tried to initiate a position in more volatile Ete ga but had second thought and chickened out once it lost the break out level of 4.47 (I have been tweeting about a break out  since 4.27 closed 4.60 today and I have no position sometimes it plays out like that too especially if you live your desk for an hour) .

I think is quite fair to say that today image in the goat market looks like this :)



Lets see if we get that correction after all !!!




No comments:

Post a Comment